enwilson:There are those who take the position that over the course of its history the Esperanto community has developed things and connections worth preserving and worth knowing whether there's a fina venko in our immediate future or not...that the community itself is worthy of being kept alive for its own sake.

Yes, Raumists (I assume that's who you refer to) have a rational basis for their position too. But as a person who doesn't care about stewardship of Esperanto towards any particular goal, be it fina venko or merely the preservation of its culture, I deny that I adopt an irrational position. In my view one can be an Esperantist, and a rational one, without caring about those things.

As far as the chances of this somewhere-over-the-rainbow fina venko are concerned, IMO sudanglo is right to point out the difficulties inherent in asserting with certainty that something will never, EVER, happen. I'm usually a proponent of the "never say never" principle myself (Infinite Monkey Theorem and all that), but in the case of Esperanto I fear the passage of time merely serves to reduce any chance it may ever have had of widespread adoption. The internet may give Esperanto a desperately needed boost, but I really don't see how that changes anything long term. The internet also gives English a massive boost, and right now if there's one thing English wasn't in any particular need of it was a boost.

Tom, nobody would sensibly argue that you can't be interested in Esperanto for fun, or out of intellectual curiosity. I'm not saying (if I read your attitude to the language correctly) that your position is irrational. It is rather that you adopt no position as an Esperantist.

As regards the probability of the fina venko, I think one can say, even though the future is inherently unknowable, that Esperanto stands no chance if it is not ready, when the time comes.

No chance if there are not enough competent speakers to act as teachers, no chance if the finer points of the grammar are still fluid and there is no reference grammar based on established usage, no chance if the lexicon is inadequate for legal contracts, scientific discourse, the application in commerce and the subtitling of popular films, no chance if there are insufficient coursebooks, teaching materials and recognised exams.

Rather than the passage of time making it less likely that Esperanto will be widely adopted, the reverse is true, since this has allowed Esperanto to be more ready.

What was unrealistic was to see Esperanto as ready (other than for travel and social contacts with eksterlandanoj) for most of its 125 year history. even though the propagandists used to argue that it was already fit for purpose.

If one were inclined and had the historical and mathematical background for it, one could probably come up with an estimate of the likelihood of any proposal/movement/item ever meeting widespread success -- and I strongly suspect that the likelihood of Esperanto meeting such success would be calculated as statistically negligible, basically zero

This is so wrong that I hardly know where to begin.

The whole history of the 20th century is crammed with sweeping social, technical and political changes that nobody predicted even as little as 25 years before the change took place. And the pace of change is accelerating in the current century.

I still can't believe that people are ready en masse to pay more for a bottle of water (free from a tap in the industrialised world) than they will pay for a pint of milk, or that people are prepared to spend hours of their day Twittering and updating their Facebook page, or that people are prepared to use just their thumbs or miniscule keyboards to send inane messages as they walk down the streets. Such things still seem impossible to me. I refuse to believe my own eyes.

But perhaps you have a time machine, xdzt. I must then bow to your superior foresight.

sudanglo:It is rather that you adopt no position as an Esperantist.

I do adopt a position, which is that Esperanto is a worthwhile and valuable pursuit in and of itself, completely independently of any political or ideological motivations. It was just that comment about "the only rational position" that troubled me; being a position quite different from that held by myself and many other people who would identify as "Esperantist". But if you don't think that position is irrational then I guess it doesn't really matter

sudanglo:Rather than the passage of time making it less likely that Esperanto will be widely adopted, the reverse is true, since this has allowed Esperanto to be more ready.

I don't see how that follows, since Esperanto's readiness is only one small thing standing against a vast array of impediments to universal adoption of the language. None of which are going to be diminished by some barely-known language suddenly becoming fit for purpose.

sudanglo:

If one were inclined and had the historical and mathematical background for it, one could probably come up with an estimate of the likelihood of any proposal/movement/item ever meeting widespread success -- and I strongly suspect that the likelihood of Esperanto meeting such success would be calculated as statistically negligible, basically zero

This is so wrong that I hardly know where to begin.

The whole history of the 20th century is crammed with sweeping social, technical and political changes that nobody predicted even as little as 25 years before the change took place. And the pace of change is accelerating in the current century.

I still can't believe that people are ready en masse to pay more for a bottle of water (free from a tap in the industrialised world) than they will pay for a pint of milk, or that people are prepared to spend hours of their day Twittering and updating their Facebook page, or that people are prepared to use just their thumbs or miniscule keyboards to send inane messages as they walk down the streets. Such things still seem impossible to me. I refuse to believe my own eyes.

But perhaps you have a time machine, xdzt. I must then bow to your superior foresight.

I absolutely agree with your thoughts regarding progress and unexpected changes. Heck, I even agree with most of Ray Kurzweil's timeframes. People are terrible prognosticators and continuously underestimate just how change occurs every 10 years, even. This is not at odds with my statements. The thing is, for all of those crazy unsuspected progresses or new inventions or social changes, there were thousands if not millions that didn't succeed. Many were probably equally as promising as the successful ones. Success, in almost any form, is more likely to not happen than it is to happen.

eugenerator4:

"So, what do you like to do for fun?"
"Oh, I play tennis"
"Good deal! That's a great pastime. OK, how about you?"
"Uh, I'm into video games. I'll play my favorites for days on end."
"Yeah, I like those, too. And you? What do you like to do for fun?"
"I'm learning guitar. It's hard, but kind of rewarding."
"Excellent! And, finally, how about you?"
"I'm learning Esperanto."
(All in unison) "WHAT? Why are you wasting your time with THAT?"

Hehe, this couldn't be closer to the truth.

But to be fair, I've notice, at least where I live, that spending too much time on educating yourself in general is looked down upon as well. If I tell people about my secret infatuation with reading the Science/Technology and Politics subreddits on reddit.com , they treat me like I'm too booky and tell me that I need hobbies. This is probably a region specific thing in my case..but it's still annoying because I do have hobbies (e.g. Tennis, Chess, Reading, Programming, etc.) and learning about science and national events is just as much of a hobby as anything else..

Most places it seems educating yourself too much strikes a large number of people as a waste of time. I have seen the same reaction also with learning to build and repair stuff. Right up until that one time when suddenly your knowledge and skills prove invaluable. Then everyone cannot praise your learning enough.

As for the negative reaction to Esperanto I get think everyone gets it, and good luck on trying Russian that is one intimidating language.

What I think one can say with some certainty, xdzt, is that a do-nothing policy is unlikely to lead to success, the moment that the Esperanto movement turns in on itself, loses sight of the original purpose, and makes no effort to have an impact on the world, it is pretty much signing the language's death warrant.

It's the same for any political movement. When they stop arguing their case, that's the end. No one can stop people learning Esperanto just for amusment, even if this was thought desirable. But this motivation is insufficient to sustain the language, in my view.

Can you imagine that in one hundred years time anybody will still be trying to learn Klingon (which is an example of something that was taken up just for distraction)?

sudanglo:Can you imagine that in one hundred years time anybody will still be trying to learn Klingon (which is an example of something that was taken up just for distraction)?

Well remember what you said: very hard to predict the future Though I'm not convinced by the analogy.. Klingon doesn't have a culture and a literature that could sustain it. Esperanto does.

sudanglo:No one can stop people learning Esperanto just for amusment, even if this was thought desirable. But this motivation is insufficient to sustain the language, in my view.

Perhaps it is insufficient. Though I doubt that, and I really don't see how it can be said with certainty. Most of the people I know through Esperanto learned the language primarily out of linguistic or intellectual curiosity, and though some of them do subscribe to finvenkist-type ideas (the ones who weren't actively put off by those ideas!) they would most likely have learned the language anyway, had the interna ideo been largely consigned to the thinking of the past. What you dismiss as mere "language geekery" and "pointless hobbyism" could in fact be the real thing that has kept the language alive for so long, enabling finvenkists to indulge in the notion they're involved in some kind of serious political movement.

RiotNrrd:"So, what do you like to do for fun?"
"Oh, I play tennis"
"Good deal! That's a great pastime. OK, how about you?"
"Uh, I'm into video games. I'll play my favorites for days on end."
"Yeah, I like those, too. And you? What do you like to do for fun?"
"I'm learning guitar. It's hard, but kind of rewarding."
"Excellent! And, finally, how about you?"
"I'm learning Esperanto."
(All in unison) "WHAT? Why are you wasting your time with THAT?"

It's a huge difference between saying "I am learning Esperanto" and "I speak Esperanto".

To me the dialog is like this:

[...]
"Excellent! And, finally, how about you?"
"I'm an Esperanto speaker. Being an active Esperanto speaker I travel a lot to meet friends, I'm writing songs in Esperanto sometimes giving concerts on international events, I give Esperanto lessons at the local university, I am editing a scientific journal in Esperanto and things like that."

On that I never had any kinds of negative reactions. When I was learning Esperanto yes, but since I actually started using it, the reactions are nothing but positive.

That's true. When you hear that someone has accomplished something, even if you think it is unnecessary, etc, you just go with the train of thought :"You put so much effort into it so let me congratulate you!"
Not like they can talk you out of it as it's already done, and voicing anything much more than their opinion that they're not into it would be considered rude. Unless you're really the type to go
"Really? Why would you go and waste your time with THAT? Do you even end up using it with other people in real life? Have you ever met someone who spoke it outside of an Esperanto environment?"

You're either a big meanie or really close to that person haha.

Sorry if that's a bit pessimistic heh.