Príspevky: 48
Jazyk: English
erinja (Zobraziť profil) 9. augusta 2015 23:43:21
jdawdy:erinja,The high end of your low estimates (10,000) seems about right (and remember that few people can remain fluent without language practice, so there's a limit to how long you can be checked out of using the language and still qualify as a speaker). Remember also that many non-fluent people attend Esperanto events and join Facebook groups, so 3000 people at UK does not equal 3000 fluent speakers.
That would mean only 5,000 to 10,000 fluent speakers, 50,000 to 100,000 intermediate speakers, and 100,000-200,000 Basic speakers. Those numbers seem exceedingly low. While I can agree that the high end of the numbers I posted may not be likely, I think the low-end numbers are at least in the ballpark: 50,000 fluent, 500,000 intermediate-advanced, and 1 million basic
50,000 fluent speakers would imply that if all these speakers are evenly distributed, my home city of Washington, DC should have about 5 fluent speakers, living in the city itself. We actually have probably 3. Remember that this "even distribution" is unrealistic in itself, DC should have more than its fair share, considering that there are large cities in Africa and Asia that probably have no speakers at all. With my numbers, DC would have one fluent speaker assuming even distribution, which sounds about right, since we know that in the real world, speakers aren't evenly distributed and we expect to find more speakers in places where people have the time and money to involve themselves with such things, and internet access to find it.
jdawdy (Zobraziť profil) 9. augusta 2015 23:52:51
mbalicki:Tiel aŭ alie, is there any argument against the validity of the estimate based on the Facebook statistics?I'd think it would depend on whether or not that estimate takes into account the relative penetration of Facebook worldwide. In other words- not everyone uses Facebook, and in some countries there are more popular alternatives than Facebook (which isn't even allowed in China).
Perhaps some of our Chinese users could comment on the number of users in Esperanto-focused social media groups in China.
jdawdy (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 0:12:44
erinja:50,000 fluent speakers would imply that if all these speakers are evenly distributed, my home city of Washington, DC should have about 5 fluent speakers, living in the city itself. We actually have probably 3. Remember that this "even distribution" is unrealistic in itself, DC should have more than its fair share, considering that there are large cities in Africa and Asia that probably have no speakers at all. With my numbers, DC would have one fluent speaker assuming even distribution, which sounds about right, since we know that in the real world, speakers aren't evenly distributed and we expect to find more speakers in places where people have the time and money to involve themselves with such things, and internet access to find it.I see what you are saying, but consider this: are you really sure that you only have 3 fluent Esperanto speakers in Washington, DC? The trouble with all this is identifying people- what we really need is to have constructed languages included in the US Census data, for any kind of accurate accounting. You could, quite literally, have 3 fluent Esperanto speakers living within a mile of you, and never know it, unless you are interested in reaching out to them, and they are interested in reaching out to you. For example, I live in an area with a population of about 600,000 (roughly the population of DC) people within a 100 mile radius. Through lernu and E-USA lists I've managed to identify 2-3 advanced (maybe fluent) speakers, 2-3 intermediate speakers, and about half a dozen komencantoj. However, I have to think there are more out there- I'm just not able to get in touch with them: either because they don't join E-USA, or they don't know about the group, or they just aren't very active or interested. This is what I have found is the most difficult part of organizing an Esperanto group- the Esperantists are out there, it's just that finding them is a real challenge.
Armand6 (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 1:56:26
Tempodivalse (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 2:13:11
![ridulo.gif](/images/smileys/ridulo.gif)
It doesn't strike me as implausible that there are only 3 "truly" proficient Esperantists in DC (*waves to neighbour Erinja*).
I think if we knew the true number of Esperantists, including a breakdown by proficiency level, we would be quite disappointed.
orthohawk (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 2:20:18
Tempodivalse:The number of truly proficient Esperantists - and by that, I mean native-like - is probably very small. Most speakers still permit a variety of small errors, in both speech and text, and have a vocabulary considerably less developed, especially for terms not easily substituted by compounds (quick, how do you say "eggplant" in Esperanto? Nope, Lernu's en-eo dictionary doesn't have itI dunno. I don't consider "proficient" (even if "truly" so) to be on the same level as "native-like". the US government language proficiency scale puts speakers at 3 level to be "proficient" but "native-like" doesn't come into play till at least 4+ (on a scale of 0-5)).
It doesn't strike me as implausible that there are only 3 "truly" proficient Esperantists in DC (*waves to neighbour Erinja*).
I think if we knew the true number of Esperantists, including a breakdown by proficiency level, we would be quite disappointed.
(and by the way, it's "melongeno".........but I'm a food geek, so......)
uosuaq (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 4:59:07
And while there may be only three good speakers in DC, I've heard that there are five Esperanto clubs in Berlin, so maybe we Americans just need to catch up.
![ridulo.gif](/images/smileys/ridulo.gif)
DOCENKO_Dmitrij (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 4:59:38
An IT guy should develop an online census to count all Esperantists.
Evildela (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 5:05:06
Armand6 (Zobraziť profil) 10. augusta 2015 6:09:45
uosuaq:"Fluent" is perhaps an unfair standard for an international second language.In that case Esperanto has no reason d'etre, as everyone in the world has a rudimentary English knowledge already. Esperanto is intended to facilitate fluent conversations.
DOCENKO_Dmitrij:An IT guy should develop an online census to count all Esperantists.There are 10400 people in VK Esperanto group, but less than 20 people are posting in Esperanto. There are just sick people who want to be a member of everything. How are you going to prevent them from registering?