darkweasel:

ceigered:Who said EO couldn't be used for economics? (not that I can join in on this technical banter)

nobody, at least not in this thread.

I don't know whether it's hard to pick up in the way I've written it, but I meant it as a phase, e.g. "now nobody can say Esperanto can't be used in economics, no matter how anti-esperantist they are, because there's economic vocab being used right'ere!".

ceigered:

darkweasel:

ceigered:Who said EO couldn't be used for economics? (not that I can join in on this technical banter)

nobody, at least not in this thread.

I don't know whether it's hard to pick up in the way I've written it, but I meant it as a phase, e.g. "now nobody can say Esperanto can't be used in economics, no matter how anti-esperantist they are, because there's economic vocab being used right'ere!".

ah, ok. seems i misunderstood.

@Sudanglo: I have absolutely no clue which way the markets will go.

As far as North American (stock) markets (NASDAQ, NYSE) are concerned, the daily outcome has been, as we say, wishy-washy. "Experts" can't make up their minds about the world's heading, so markets have no definite opinions to act on, mainly because those talking heads are too busy covering their own posteriors (no news there).

With about 80% of investment managers unable to consistently beat the markets (a fraction manages to get a 2-year streak of profitable trades), the last thing "amateur" investors/traders should do (and, incidentally, also their most frequent mistake) is: a) to rely on so-called experts and b) to trade for the short term.

An important issue in stock markets is the sheer volume of money coming from non-professional investors trading for short-term profits (and getting their skins peeled off in the process). People irrationally perceive that, by trading stocks on a daily basis, they actually have a chance of making a decent profit...not knowing (or simply not wanting to admit), that every brokerage firm employs armies of professional traders whose single task is to scout and trade the hell out of the most profitable stocks, day in day out. Against these resources, a lone non-professional investor who spends an hour or two weekly looking at his investments stands more chances of dying from a gold fish bite than of making a profit (after taxes, trading fees, etc.).

A year ago, when media suddenly started predicting bluer skies, we saw a massive influx of money being re-injected into the markets by ordinary households looking to get back some of what they had lost (some people, it seems, grow a new epidermis rather fast). If another crash panic should set into the media, these same households (who rely on "expert" opinions for their decisions) would be the first to withdraw their money from the market, sending stock prices plunging back down, re-igniting the same vicious circle the mortgage crisis gave us a nasty tour of.

In any case, no matter how deep the potential crash, stocks history shows that the market invariably goes back up. And if it plunges another shot, it'll just be another opportunity for me to buy at dirt-cheap prices.

One thing I'm sure of, though, is that whichever way the markets go, the U.S dollar is sure to lose its status as a reference currency, which will send its value even lower. As a self-employed Canadian with a significant portion of my income coming from the other side of the border, it pinches my nerves every time I have to convert my U.S. dollars to Canadian: because Canadian is a stronger currency, I get less of it when I convert the U.S. dollars my clients pay me in.

Perhaps it's time I ditched the U.S. and checked for greener pastures.

Well, this whole system of using a reference currency of a single nation does seem a little unstable, both for the country who gets turned into the scapegoat and the rest of the world. And it doesn't help when individual countries try to artificially modify their own economies when the rest of the world's hinging on them.

Is it possible to just forget about the whole idea of a set reference currency that we all place our hopes on, or would that lead to economic instability just as easily? (I would have assumed it would make economies stronger since they have to stand on their own two feet).

ceigered:Well, this whole system of using a reference currency of a single nation does seem a little unstable.

Gratulon on reaching 4000!

I'm not an economist, but maybe someone can tell me what's wrong with the Gold Standard (possible answer: it won't let governments print money). Or how about the Australian dollar? Isn't there a bloke who has made an unimaginable fortune by exploiting mining in the Australian desert?

I find it difficult to square the stockmarket falls with the facts that many companies have recently reported good profits and are paying good dividends.

Dividend yields around 6% on what seem to be solid companies are not too difficult to find on the London market.

Again the economies of the emerging markets (BRIC et al) have been booming with massive growth rates compared to Western economies.

The fantastic growth in the gold price shows that investors are worried about the future of some currencies. But that doesn't, I think, stop emerging markets growing. Surely there is too much momentum in the Chinese economy for that to fizzle out now.

Anyway bought Centamin Egypt today - fall looks overdone - and if the world goes mad and the gold price rockets further, then sitting on umpteen million ounces of gold can't be bad.

I continue to like emerging market investment trusts whose falls also look overdone.

Miland the problem with tying your currency to gold is it denies flexibilty in managing the economy. If we had done that recently in the UK then nobody could afford our exports for starters.

Far better to let your currency float and find its own level. If the European hadn't gone Euro mad and had retained their own currencies, the drachma, the punt, the peseta and the lira would have sunk and found their own equilibrium levels.

Miland:

ceigered:Well, this whole system of using a reference currency of a single nation does seem a little unstable.

Gratulon on reaching 4000!

Whoops... it seems I let myself get carried away again... Sed dankegon, mia amika konkuranto!

Miland:I'm not an economist, but maybe someone can tell me what's wrong with the Gold Standard (possible answer: it won't let governments print money).

Sudanglo:Miland the problem with tying your currency to gold is it denies flexibilty in managing the economy. If we had done that recently in the UK then nobody could afford our exports for starters.

Mmm.. interesting, so basically the gold standard makes growth too hard to manage and makes things go too slowly?

So, Sudanglo, would you then say that rather than heading for a crash, we're heading for a reshuffling of economic power? I find it hard to believe after all that with the physical infrastructure, information infrastructure and corporate infrastructure all the countries in the west, east and developing world have that we could experience any major crashes, depression style, at least not with a different outcome (although the developing word and nations in poverty could find stabilisation problems)

Miland:Or how about the Australian dollar? Isn't there a bloke who has made an unimaginable fortune by exploiting mining in the Australian desert?

There's also Rupert Murdoch who exploited newspapers in Australia, he seems to be doing well . Trust me though, if we use the AUD as the standard for the world, everything non-essential for living will skyrocket in price (unfortunately larger wages seem to lead to everything coster dearer).

sudanglo:I find it difficult to square the stockmarket falls with the facts that many companies have recently reported good profits and are paying good dividends.

Dividend yields around 6% on what seem to be solid companies are not too difficult to find on the London market.

Again the economies of the emerging markets (BRIC et al) have been booming with massive growth rates compared to Western economies.

The fantastic growth in the gold price shows that investors are worried about the future of some currencies. But that doesn't, I think, stop emerging markets growing. Surely there is too much momentum in the Chinese economy for that to fizzle out now.

Anyway bought Centamin Egypt today - fall looks overdone - and if the world goes mad and the gold price rockets further, then sitting on umpteen million ounces of gold can't be bad.

I continue to like emerging market investment trusts whose falls also look overdone.

Miland the problem with tying your currency to gold is it denies flexibilty in managing the economy. If we had done that recently in the UK then nobody could afford our exports for starters.

Far better to let your currency float and find its own level. If the European hadn't gone Euro mad and had retained their own currencies, the drachma, the punt, the peseta and the lira would have sunk and found their own equilibrium levels.

@Sudanglo: I'm not the type to dwell on minutiae, preferring, as I said earlier, to focus on my long-term earnings. However, corporate entities on either side of the Atlantic have been known to practice a certain brand of generosity in order to promote stability for their stock price and/or to avoid panic, depending on the economic weather. However, stock market history does show that markets have yielded an average of 6-8% in returns on average since the beginning of the 20th century, which would put the London market's recent performance right on par...and also makes me very sad to not directly own any stock on that market. I have been curious, recently, about adding some emerging markets assets to the stock portion of my portfolio and I'm rather curious about Southeast Asian markets. Any good places I could start gathering info on Asian regional Index funds?

PS: Awesome discussion, by the way, guys!

These forums are really meant for discussing Esperanto, so let's try to keep things to Esperanto-related topics, please.

You are more than welcome to discuss this topic in the Esperanto-language forums. But the English forums are intended for discussing the Esperanto language in English, for lernu users who aren't yet capable of following discussions in the Esperanto forums.

The issue of suitable topics in the English forum has come up before, Erinja, and I thought that someone quoted from the guiding principles 'as any topic' (subject to the rule of good taste, of course).

I would like to hear the views of other 'samideanoj', whose Esperanto may not yet be up to speed for discussing this hot topic in Esperanto.

Plus, there is no reason why this thread may not lead on to how to say in Esperanto 'Investment Trust', 'dividend yield', 'floating currency'. 'emerging markets' etc.