sudanglo:In any case, the Esperantists need, IMHO, to review their propaganda.

My guess is that propaganda plays a very small role in attracting new Esperantists. It's just a guess, though. In my own case, I stumbled upon Esperanto, and was then curious enough to try to find out more. That was in 1984, long before Google. The situation is now utterly different. It's easy for anyone to find information about Esperanto, as well as anti-Esperanto polemics.

The question is, what does it take to motivate people to take the next step?

I suppose part of it is to give people more opportunities to stumble upon Esperanto in the first place. We can mention it, on Facebook, Twitter, and so on. Each mention plants a seed in someone's awareness.

We can do more ambitious things, like making YouTube videos, podcasts, and so on. It's hard to know what might give someone the push to investigate further. Some years ago, I made a rather cheesy video, that now has had almost 9,000 views. That's not a lot by YouTube standards, but I'm confident that many of those views were by people just browsing around looking for something about Esperanto, wanting to hear what it sounds like, etc. Some will have clicked on it because they listened to one of my ocarina videos. Whatever the reason, it's there to be found, and it makes Esperanto a tiny bit more visible. We can all do things like that.

I've thought about creating a podcast, just to force myself to keep putting Esperanto out there, to be found. Maybe I'll actually do it!

Todd

The situation is certainly more hopeful now because of the Internet and all the resources it gives access to (for free) for learning the language.

Yet, I remain convinced, that whilst the Internet massively increases the chances of someone stumbling across Esperanto, becoming intrigued, and going on to learn it, nevertheless, to obtain the tens of millions of speakers we need the obvious route is to get it into the schools.

I can't see that coming to pass on the basis of the traditional narrative about Esperanto (given the entrenchment of English) and therefore I think activists should start arguing for it on an educational basis.

That doesn't mean, of course, that the traditional account of the reasons for learning it, needs to be completely abandoned, but it does need a shift in emphasis.

Perhaps, rather than presenting it as a replacement for English in the interlingvo role, we should present it as a people's lingua franca (along side English) for those who do have the time, money, or energy to master English.

But to get it into the schools we have to marshal all the arguments for its educational value.

T0dd:The question is, what does it take to motivate people to take the next step?

For me, a well presented website and very good beginner introduction course thingamabob.

This is actually where I really started to learn Esperanto.

If I had something like that when I first came across Volapük (I think that was before I came across EO?), I would have no doubt had little trouble getting acquainted with the language. A very simple, one might say not very comprehensive and informative, yet effective and concise way of giving the interesatulo a bit of a demo of what they can expect from their potential new hobby/commitment.

Next was Lernu, which basically provides that learning environment.

To emulate that in the real world, or to spread this method of learning in the virtual world (since I still had to come in contact with the idea of Esperanto through a long process), could be a good start to creating interest in the idea.

I think at times all us human creatures can be a bit overzealous about things we're passionate about and give people sensory overload informing them about things, thus the appeal of the fairly minimalistic Zam the alien's super-beginner course.

Ah, there was also an itunes video podcast of similar minimalistic attributes, with a chalkboard background and text and some guy's voice, who I swear had a middle eastern last name... That was also nice and not overwhelming...

The thing that put the podcast idea into my head is that I recently subscribed to some French podcasts, to brush the dust off my French. One of them is about 5 minutes long, and consists of a single sentence from a newspaper or magazine, followed by some commentary on the words in the sentence, with more examples of the usage of each word. I get others, but I like this one. The key is that it's short enough to be listened to in spare moments, and more than once. I get longer French podcasts, which I tend to listen to only once. I think I get more out of the short one.

I get some Esperanto podcasts too, but they tend to be 15-20 minutes long (Radio Verda and Varsovia Vento), but for study purposes, a short podcast would be good. In terms of promotion, just listing such a podcast on a podcast server allows it to be noticed, and thus increases the legitimacy of Esperanto.

Concerning the "educational argument", to make the case I think you'd need to show that a person who studies Esperanto for one year, then studies (say) French for a year, will have a better command of French than someone who simply studies French for two years! If I were a school administrator, I'd want hard evidence before risking my reputation on such a program.

Here's a variation on the idea. This is something that might work in the US. Most of the online universities and colleges here currently have no foreign language requirement. If there were an accredited semester-long online course in Esperanto, it's possible that such a course could count for "elective" credit at some of these institutions. The college/university would have to receive some portion of the tuition fees for such a course. Since it would cost them little or nothing to list the course, whatever money they made would be pure profit, which they like. Since it would be an elective, it wouldn't count toward any degree program, so no departmental feathers would be ruffled. I don't know whether many students would sign up for such a course, but it would be worth a try.

Todd

I like the elective idea but it would need someone to teach it. Also, I think the course would have to count towards *something* otherwise students wouldn't waste their money to get those credits. Even if that "something" is just general distribution credits, "language/humanities" or whatever.

I went to a well-regarded public university and I was not required to take any languages at all, which is really unfortunate. I did take two years of Yiddish and a semester of Italian, which probably would have fulfilled my language requirement if I'd had one. Most engineers are not required to take a language, which I think is a shame.

erinja:I like the elective idea but it would need someone to teach it.

Some schools do completely automated online courses, although they may require a proctored exam. A well-designed course could run without a teacher.

Also, I think the course would have to count towards *something* otherwise students wouldn't waste their money to get those credits. Even if that "something" is just general distribution credits, "language/humanities" or whatever.

That's the catch. If there's a general language/humanities distribution, that might work. The thing to avoid, however, is having to get the approval of some curriculum committee who are protecting their turf. That route will never work. But some programs have "free electives" that students can "spend" on whatever they want. Many students seek out something "easy". If Esperanto were perceived as easier than some other things they might take, it might get some customers.

I went to a well-regarded public university and I was not required to take any languages at all, which is really unfortunate. I did take two years of Yiddish and a semester of Italian, which probably would have fulfilled my language requirement if I'd had one. Most engineers are not required to take a language, which I think is a shame.

That's unfortunate, but not really surprising anymore. This is why the schools that still have language departments are the last places that will look favorably upon Esperanto, which would just pluck the last few students out of their classes. Esperanto would need to be offered at places that don't have languages, so nobody is particularly threatened by it. And since no college or uni is going to hire anyone to teach it, it would have to be a "distance learning" option.

Todd

600 * 2^((2010 - 1905)/10) = 868893 (rounded to units)

Regards,

Daniel

sudanglo:Let's suppose, just for argument, that in 1905 there were 600 committed Esperantists (the number attending the first UK in Boulogne). And let's suppose that each Esperantist created just 2 other committed Esperantists every 10 years (a modest achievement) And that these recruits, in their turn, recruited others at a similar pace.

Then, how many committed Esperantists should there be in 2010?

Thank you Daniel, for doing the calculation. But have you allowed for Esperantists dying?

I know that many of them live to a ripe old age (look around any Universal Kongreso) but surely many who were alive in the first half of the 20th century would now be dead. And of course the efforts of Stalin and Hitler would have knocked back the numbers.

Anyway, let's say that with this correction the number comes to say 300,000 for 2010 and let's say that this is plausible. Then this shows a very slow rate of recruitment (2 more in each decade was the assumption).

Does the picture look a bit more rosy on the exponential growth model in 2050?

Suppose 600 * (a^9.5) = 300,000
then log(a) = log(500)/9.5 = 0.6542
so a = 1.9235. Till the end of 2050, at this factor of growth every decade from now we get 300,000 * (1.9235^4) = about 4.1 million.
So the Fina Venko doesn't look realistic in the foreseeable future.

Now we are cooking with gas. Hurrah!